I Saw

I saw a Meteorite! Ya a real meteorite of 1400lbs! All these days i had just heard of things falling from sky but this one was a real proof. It had indeed fallen. Or atleast this is what London museum claims. They have many of such god sent solids...



I saw snow! Ya a real snow of 1 feet! I had seen snow before in USA but this was first time i saw it snowing. It was an awesome experience.


I saw a Mummy.. a real life! egyptian Mummy... it looks not exactly as it does in Mummy or Mummy Returns as it was just lying there fully strapped.. I saw the Mummy of cleopatra.. I still cant believe it that i saw a Mummy... A real Mummy!


I saw the tower bridge or london bridge as it is called... Ya the same.. London bridge is falling down.. falling down.. falling down..London bridge is falling down.. my fairlady. Or the bridge on which SRK ran to Kajol. The best part was that i cud see it twice and on my second attempt i saw it open and close to let a ship pass.


I saw the clothes of our hero Tipu Sultan which he wore for his last battle with British army. I had heard of this final fight and seen the place where it had happened on the trip to Mysore. Now his clothes are kept in one of the castles of Queen.. Windsor Castle. Though it appears odd to see it here but may be it's still safe because it is here.

And I saw 2 Indians, 3 Pakistanis, 1 Bangladeshi, 1 African living peacefully under same roof sharing same toilet for 3 months... Yours truly is one of them... :D

And yes, I saw London...

Era of No Tissue and Monetary easing

So the world is down. Tissues recently disappeared from my office though the CEO made a promise that no HCLite would be left behind in this turmoil. I salute him for this and for his hip shaking dance on bachna aye hasseno in the meet.But tissues did disappear...

When i started working in 2002, the IT sector was still grappling with millenium bubble burst and oldies had this tissue disappearing memories to share... I'm growing old and experienced.
For the newbies, the fact is that when an IT comp starts cost cutting, the first thing getting axed in tissue... Hankies in; tissues out...

Worldwide the interest rate are moving closer to zero in what is known as Quantitative monetary easing policy (pioneered by BO Japan i guess). How would u feel if u can buy a car or a home at closer to 0% interest (really around 2-3%) interest rate! But alas! for that to happen many other things need to fall including earning capability, rather employment... So as again supply demand rules.

Capitalism has been questioned this time. The sheer existence of paper money could be debated...It is being done so in Zimbabwe where inflation is more than some million %. Basically this no. is of no relevance as people do not want zimbabwe currency for exchange of good they have since the confidence in currency is lost. Are we headed back to historic Barter system? That makes me think what is it that i can recourse to under such circumustances... Go back to my ancestoral property and start sowing! Ok ok... i'm being too pessimistic... I did make some quick buck on my favourite relcom.. so may be i can be a day trader..

Catching up…

Being not in great health at times is good to catch up with friends, write and read. And I can’t ask for more if it happens over a weekend and when my boss is out of country :)

I just finished reading “The 3 mistakes of my life” this morning at 4am as I couldn’t stop once started. No doubt it’s a good and simple read. But I sincerely feel Chetan could have done better for his 3rd novel. Brida is my next one for now…

“The 3 mistakes…” novel reminds me of my birthday as it is a gift from my friend. Though I started reading it almost after 2 months of my bday, I was stuck on the first page (after the cover) which only had book’s title (when bought). My friend had penned bday greetings on it and the whole page now reads… Dear Gaurav… “The 3 mistakes of my life” Happy birth day… - . Hope it is unintentional. :P

Coming back to my bday (which was made special by Rajesh and a group of friends) I got my first car on that date. Yes, it was planned. It’s a major milestone for me as I always wished of owning a car as I grew up. Though the one I really looked keenly on the glossy pages of Times of India, long back, was Sonata but I can do with (m)i10 for now. It looks sexy and feels great to drive.

Taking note of other macroeconomic conditions there appears to be a bear bubble in the cap markets. Till Dec the market was always ready to go up by 500 points on very little good new and now it is just the otherwise. But wise should continue to invest on all these levels with 3 years perspective. Only caveat is … Don’t invest any money that you are going to need in next 3-5 years.

The IT industry along with the financial services sector looks down for now and more so the latter. IT players have been reacting with cheap gimmicks like retrenching 700 freshers, giving less than inflation hikes, cutting napkins, charging for tea and I guess the next one will be a charge for more than x no. of pees a day. I sense a cartel here. I feel there is a need to have a group of IT/ITeS employees like a labor union where one can raise voice and fight ever changing policies of these companies. This is a signature of maturing industry. This is not a leftist view but just a view. The industry is going through a rough phase and companies need to rationalize expenses and more so stop charging peanuts net margin’s to big clients. May be one can have cartel for this. Anyways, I feel that the mature companies will survive this phase and the scenario is good for industry overall as it has made us to re-think and grow above number-revenue linearity.

So that is it… I loved movie “Jaane Tu…” as it has Genelia of “Boys” fame. I remember to have watched “Boys” thrice in Tamil. Its songs are one of the best I’ve ever heard. It is music at the end… words hardly count…. Stay cosy!

Presentation Paradox

Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel prize winning expert in cognitive psychology, and his long timecolleague Amos Tversky designed the following simple, if somewhat dramatic test to show how achange of presentation can affect our decisions. Their test consists of presenting two variants ofa choice between two public health programmes that address a threat to the lives of 600 people.

The first variant is:
‘With programme A we know that 200 lives will be saved, whereas with programme B there is a one-third chanceof saving all 600 lives and a two-thirds chance of saving none.’

Kahneman and Tversky found that a clear majority of the people they presented with this choicepreferred A to B.

The second variant is:
With programme C we know that 400 lives will be lost, whereas with programme D there is a one-third chancethat none will die and a two-thirds chance that all 600 people will die.’

A majority of the people presented with this choice prefer D to C. Now, looking at the fourprogrammes, it becomes clear that, on the one hand, A and C are the same and, on the otherhand, C and D are also the same; the people saved in one presentation are the people not dyingin the other. So, whether one prefers A to B or the reverse, one ought express the same order ofpreference between C and D, and that is not the case with many of the people interviewed; thesepeople are violating the axiom of independence of choice.

Kahneman and Tversky (1979) developed a new theory to explain their findings. They suggestedthat people are generally risk averse when choosing between a sure gain and a chance of a largergain, but the same people may take a chance when forced to choose between a sure loss and onlya probability of a worse loss. The snag is that what appears as a sure gain or a sure loss is often aquestion of perspective that can be easily manipulated by the way a problem is presented.

Optical illusion eh! :) Be wary of your financial advisor!

Discount sale on Dalal Street

The once in a year discount sale is now in progress on D-Street. All items are either available on buy one and get one free (if you consider Dec end prices) or up-to 60% off on all items. The sale is on all brands like Reliance, Bharti, Tata, Birla etc. And what can be better than a complete ease of online shopping. Stocks will be directly delivered to your account. No postal charges. Sat and Sun off.

So this summarizes the scene of Indian markets currently. It’s funny that heavens have turned complete upside down is two months. What was considered a heaven for development is now at the brink of complete collapse. With US indexes on respirator and no amount of medication showing any sign, the Indian scene is getting gloomier day by day.

Now is there an opportunity here? Well there is plenty I would say.

Why I’ve been not writing about markets on this blog is because of my un-easiness with the market movements searching for a bottom. As of today I see a 700 points correction taking Sensex to 15K. Here I smell opportunity is a big way. I would suggest one to go all out and invest in small quantities and keep doing so for next 3-4 months. Remember, buy in small quantities.

Another opportunity is for investments for tax purposes. Do invest at the beginning of April in ELSS schemes. I would recommend investing about 25% of what you want to invest in ELSS for the year. One should not time the market is the often repeated verse but now is the time to do so.

I see some more correction happening once the Q4 results are out as financial, auto, real-estate companies are going to perform badly. However, even this is a buy opportunity where one can deploy total of 75% of investment corpus for the year. I would even go to say that give a skip to PPF, FD’s in this scenario and invest in MFs for this year at 15K level and below that.

Now the important question is: When does this discount sale close. My response is let’s not get worried about it as we are investing for at least 3 years and the return will be more than 12% per annum tax-free which is better than most instruments if not all. I believe in investment for compounding and this is a God sent opportunity as you would be investing at much higher prices as the years go by.

Many ask me weather I believe in SIP (systematic investment plan) or not. I would say if you don’t know there are 30 stocks in Sensex then better invest through SIP. Personally there is still time for me to start believing in that. I have not said I don’t believe. J

Stay Cosy!